Fire Weather Outlook
December 2020–February 2021
Seasonal Recap for Fall 2020
Fall 2020 in Florida felt more like summer. On average, fall 2020 ranked as the warmest fall season, going back as far as 1895. The season also recorded the record warmest average minimum temperature for the season. Both of these records were supported by record warmer-than-average temperatures throughout many counties in Central and Southeast Florida, and a tied record in the Big Bend.
September, October and November 2020 all ranked within the top five warmest months, with October ranking as the record warmest October ever. Throughout the early part of the season, temperatures averaged in the mid to upper 80s in North Florida, and upper 80s to lower 90s in Central and South Florida. While September was relatively close to average, North and Central Florida were as much as 5 degrees above average for the month. In November, the streak continued in North Florida, where temperatures were as much as 7 degrees above average.
September precipitation amounts remained right around average, except in the Western Panhandle and parts of South Florida due to rainfall from what eventually became Hurricane Sally. October precipitation remained around average despite impacts from Tropical Storm Eta during the middle of the month. A few spots along the southeastern coast saw well above average precipitation, with Loxahatchee recording its wettest month of October. November was within the top five wettest for Central and South Florida, with several sites ranking in the top 10 wettest months of November on record.
Fall 2020 also saw the end of a very active and record-breaking Atlantic hurricane season. In all, there were 30 total storms, of which 13 became hurricanes and six of those became major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher). For the second time ever, storm names delved into the Greek Alphabet, with the final named storm of the season being Hurricane Iota, which is also now notable for being the latest Atlantic hurricane ever to obtain Category 5 strength. Despite the hyperactive season, Florida managed to stay clear of significant tropical activity. The Sunshine State only had two landfalling storms during the 2020 hurricane season. What would eventually become Hurricane Sally made landfall at Key Biscayne as a tropical depression. Tropical Storm Eta made two landfalls in the state — once in the Keys, and again near Cedar Key in Levy County.
Seasonal Forecast for Winter 2020–2021
La Niña is forecast to continue through the winter. In the Southeast, La Niña typically means a drier and cooler winter. So far, only a handful of counties in South Florida have seen above-average precipitation, while the rest of the state is either at or below average. North Florida also saw its first freeze of the year in January. So far, models seem to agree with the typical La Niña pattern.
Temperatures statewide are forecast to be above the seasonal average, continuing a forecasting streak that has gone through several years. The entire state of Florida has a moderate chance of seeing below-average precipitation through February — that being said, drought development will be likely throughout much of North Florida through February 2021. Wildfire potential will remain around average through January but may increase to above normal for February, as we continue to see below-average rainfall. This likely signals a very dry start to the peak of the 2021 fire season.
